by DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The climate talks just concluded in Dubai struck at the heart of compromise, finding a common language that nearly 200 countries agreed to, sometimes grudgingly.
For the first time in nearly three decades of such talks, the final agreement named fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) as the cause of climate change and said the world needs to “transition away” from them. But he did not use the words “phase out,” requested by advocates and more than 100 countries who argued it would provide clearer direction for the world to move quickly toward renewable energy that does not produce the planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. .
For a deal so loaded with compromises, what experts thought of it, including the impact it could have in the years to come, was about as polarizing as it gets.
The Associated Press asked 23 different delegates, analysts, scientists and activists where they would rank COP28 among all climate conferences. More than half said COP28 was the most important climate conversation in history. However, a smaller but still large portion dismissed it as horrible. Even some who considered it the most significant also highlighted what they characterized as big problems.
Thirteen of the 23 said they would rank what COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber calls the UAE Consensus among the top five in negotiations and agreements. Several called it the most significant since the 2015 Paris talks, which set specific goals to limit temperature rises and was the near-unanimous choice for the most significant climate meeting.
The two weeks of negotiations at COP28 also launched a new compensation fund for nations most affected by the impacts of climate change, such as cyclones, floods and droughts. The fund, called loss and damage, secured nearly $800 million in pledges during the talks. Nations also agreed to triple renewable fuel use, double energy efficiency and adopted stronger language and commitments to help poorer nations adapt to worsening extreme weather due to climate change.
The leaders, mostly non-scientists, said Dubai was keeping alive the world’s slim and dwindling hopes of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures, the target adopted in Paris. The world has already warmed 1.2 degrees (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit). Many scientific estimates looking at policies and promises project at least 2.5 to nearly 3 degrees of warming (4.3 to nearly 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), which could lead to more extremes and make it harder for humans to adapt.
The negotiators, who spent Tuesday night and Wednesday morning in special closed-door meetings with al-Jaber before the deal was reached, were especially proud and used the word historic frequently in public pronouncements. When asked where COP28 fit into that story, they stayed on message.
“I think it ranks very high,” said Zambia’s Green Economy and Environment Minister Collins Nzovu, who led his nation’s delegation. “The losses and damages are there. GGA (the adaptation agreement) is there. We also talk about fossil fuels. So I think we’re going somewhere.”
German special climate envoy Jennifer Morgan, who has attended all these talks as an analyst, environmental activist and now negotiator, said that “it is very important” and not only because of the list of agreed actions.
“It shows that multilateralism works in a world where we have problems cooperating in different areas,” Morgan told the AP hours after the agreement was approved.
Former US special climate envoy Todd Stern, who helped craft the Paris agreement, placed the UAE deal fifth on his list of major climate meetings, with Paris first.
Stern’s colleague at the RMI think tank, CEO Jon Creyts, put this year’s deal second only to Paris “precisely because the message is comprehensive and economy-wide. It also engaged the private sector and local communities on an unprecedented scale. “The United States and China were once again united in leadership mode while the voices of the most vulnerable were heard.”
Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa also thought it was second only to Paris: “At this COP the loss and damage fund was established, the cause of the climate crisis (fossil fuels) was finally named for the first time and The world was committed to transitioning away from the situation. of them, and it is necessary to act in this decade. “That’s a lot more than we get from most COPs.”
Johan Rockstrom, a scientist who heads the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, praised what happened, but like so many others who rated it highly, he also saw problems.
“We finally have a plan the world can work with to phase out oil, coal and gas. It’s not perfect, far from it, and it’s not entirely aligned with science, but it’s something we can work with,” Rockstrom said in an email. “Will it achieve 1.5°C (even if implemented)? The answer is no.”
The problem is that the agreement has too many loopholes that allow countries to continue producing and even expand the use of fossil fuels, said Jean Su of the Center for Biological Diversity. He also cited a portion of the text that allows for “transitional” fuels, a term the industry often uses for natural gas that is not as polluting as coal but still contributes to warming.
“Politically it broke an important barrier, but it also contained poison pills that could lead to the expansion of fossil fuels and climate injustice,” he said.
Joanna Depledge, a historian of climate negotiations at the University of Cambridge in England, said the idea that weak language is “somehow seen as a triumph” shows that the world is in trouble, Depledge said.
“The enormous gulf between science and politics, between intention and action, barely changed in Dubai,” he added.
The scientists were among those who rated the deal with the United Arab Emirates low.
“In the context of these past, truly significant COPs, Dubai is an insignificant,” said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer, who is also a professor of international affairs.
The agreement’s language was “like promising your doctor to ‘stop using donuts’ after you’re diagnosed with diabetes,” said climate scientist Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania. “The lack of an agreement to phase out fossil fuels It was devastating.”
Mann, like former US Vice President Al Gore, called for radical reform of the COP process. For his part, Gore said it is too early to judge the importance of this COP, but he is not satisfied with the slow progress.
“It’s been 31 years since Rio and eight years since the Paris Agreement,” Gore said. “Only now are we mustering the political will to identify the core problem, which would otherwise have been blocked by fossil fuel companies and petrostates.”
However, Gore and others still have hope.
“I think 1.5 is achievable,” said Thibyan Ibrahim, who led adaptation negotiations on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States. “You need to ensure that people will do the things they have said they will do, that promises will actually be kept and that commitments will be kept.”
___
Sibi Arasu and Jamey Keaten contributed to this report.
___
Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment
___
Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears
___
The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage is supported by several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
