by Six weeks ago there was widespread celebration among intermediaries when the Football Association was defeated in a legal case attempting to cap fees for negotiating transfer deals. Nine days into January and agents aren’t exactly cashing in: It’s been a window of plenty of talk but a dearth of closed deals.
Middlemen in multimillion-dollar deals to recruit talent can only think of a year ago, when clubs were willing to spend big in the middle of the season. The window wasn’t even open when Liverpool made their move for Cody Gakpo, a Boxing Day coup to move the Dutch striker ahead of Manchester United.
The spending didn’t end there. Leeds found the money to bolster their survival hopes with a £10m move for Max Wober, and Southampton had a similar tactic with an early move for Miroslav Orisic and parted ways with £8m.
Then there was Chelsea. Beniot Badialshile cost £35m for the first team, while David Fofana and Andrey Santos were bought for the Academy for a combined £28m. By the end of the month they had broken the Premier League transfer record for Enzo Fernandez after beating Arsenal to the £89m signing of Mykhailo Mudryk.
A year later and, for various reasons, there has not been such frenetic spending. Agents are talking to clubs, holding meetings and assessing the overseas market for available players, but there are no major purchases yet. Some are waiting for a deal to revive spending, if Eddie Nketiah or Conor Gallagher can breathe life into the market. But it’s not at all certain that those two will come out in the next three weeks.
FFP rules are more relevant than ever
Perhaps the biggest hurdle to spending has been Everton’s punishment for breaching the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability (PSR) rules. The abbreviation for this, among football circles, is “FFP”, as financial fair play was called when it was first introduced. Clubs cannot lose more than £105m over three years and Everton’s 10-point deduction has shown how seriously they take it.
It has created frustration for many, with a situation comparable to that of wealthy homeowners who are allowed to buy a house but are prevented from decorating it. But he no longer takes a backseat when it comes to recruitment, and clubs consider him a primary concern when planning their window.
So a club like Newcastle with its Saudi owners cannot simply buy its way out of an injury and suspension crisis. In fact, as the Daily Telegraph reports, they have been exploring whether they can reduce Sandro Tonali’s salary while he is suspended for betting offences, as it frees up money to spend as cover. Other clubs that have received player windfalls in previous windows have spent the proceeds or are close to using them up.
Other factors are at play outside of the PSR. Last summer, the Saudi Pro League was involved in a race of sorts to secure players from the Premier League and elsewhere in Europe. Aleksandar Mitrovic’s departure meant £45m for Fulham, while Liverpool received £52m following the departures of Fabinho and Jordan Henderson.
But the mid-season window is not expected to be as active, largely because the big clubs have exhausted the eight foreign places in SPL teams. At the moment there is no more room for the Galacticos, although that may change in the summer if they increase the club quota. Mohamed Salah, the subject of a bid close to the summer deadline, is not expected to be on the agenda until the season ends.
La Liga’s strength fades
The European leagues are also not as strong, meaning there is no escape route for players looking for a move. Jude Bellingham’s £88.5m move to Real Madrid masked just how weak La Liga is. Spain has dropped out of the top five spending countries and without Bellingham it would be closer to Championship level than the top five in the Premier League, Saudi Pro League, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A.
Reasons for the decrease in spending include rules that La Liga clubs are subject to, which had a perfect example in 2021, when Lionel Messi agreed to a new contract to remain at Barça, but the terms did not comply with financial regulations. of the league. The president of LaLiga, Javier Tebas, talks about sustainability when interviewed about the competition and its future. He believes that La Liga is on the right path.
“The British market is a doped market,” he said last season. “It is quite dangerous that the markets are doped, inflated, as has been happening in recent years in Europe, because that can endanger the sustainability of European football. “I am happy because our clubs are economically sustainable and that means we have a future for many more years.”
In the eyes of players looking for a move or agents negotiating transfers, Spain is no longer the destination it once was. After the Bellingham deal, the next biggest transfer of the summer was 32-year-old Antoine Griezmann, making his permanent return to Atletico Madrid for £17.5m. After that, we are in the territory of the €14m (£12.2m) paid for César Montes (Almería) and Artem Dovbyk (Girona).
Impact of Afcon and Asia Cup
Another big factor with the lack of transfers has been Afcon and the Asia Cup. Clubs have lost players in these important mid-season tournaments and, in short, they keep their squad players to cover themselves. Tottenham have lost Son Heung-min, Pape Sarr and Yves Bissouma, so losing more would be meaningless.
The Spurs have been one of the most active players in this quiet market. Genoa’s Radu Dragusin has been allocated £21.5m to give them an extra centre-back, while Timo Werner will arrive on loan. These may not be the blockbuster January deals of Fernando Torres and Andy Carroll moving around the Premier League, but I have at least seen that there is a club willing to do business early in the window. Ben Brereton Diaz’s move to Sheffield United is the other major loan move, but there is a feeling the exciting action is yet to come.
