by Tottenham Hotspur have confirmed the most eye-catching deal of the January transfer window so far by signing former Chelsea striker Timo Werner on loan with an option to buy.
Ange Postecoglou has managed to make Spurs a dynamic attacking force despite the summer sale of Harry Kane, but the club is still in the process of rebuilding its forward line following the loss of its record goalscorer.
Only Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah have scored more Premier League goals than Son Heung-min this season, who Spurs could be without for six weeks if South Korea go all the way to the Asian Cup.
Werner’s two seasons at Chelsea were disappointing following a £47.5m transfer from RB Leipzig in 2020, and the German club bought him back for £25.3m two years later.
The striker has not set the Bundesliga alight since his return, but there is reason to be optimistic about the stylistic adjustment under Postecoglou at Spurs.
Similarities with Son… but an obvious difference
One explanation for Werner’s problems at Chelsea was that they were unable to pin down his best position. Was he better in the middle, on the left or as part of two forwards?
However, the fact that Werner can be used as both a centre-forward and a left-back probably doesn’t worry Postecoglou, because they are the two positions that need to be covered in Son’s absence.
Richarlison can also play both roles, and Postecoglou takes advantage of the versatility of his attacking options. Against stronger opposition, especially Arsenal and Man City, Son has impressively led the line in more counter-attacking displays. Against teams that hide behind the ball against Spurs, Son can move to the left with Richarlison at number 9 to get an extra goalscorer up the field. Werner would be part of this rotation.
Postecoglou likes to keep his wingers high and wide, with Tottenham’s full-backs advancing into attacking midfield positions inside, meaning his wide players must possess the explosiveness to tackle in isolation and capitalize on one-on-ones. one who creates the system.
Like Son, Werner certainly has the speed that the Tottenham manager seems to value. Even when starting on the left, both players can threaten the back of opposing defenses with outside-in runs. One of Werner’s best performances for Chelsea came in the 2021 Champions League final, when his movement stretched Manchester City’s defensive line, leaving space for his teammates.
Comparing Son’s touch map this season with Werner’s from last season, when he played more frequently for RB Leipzig, we see two players who operate in similar zones. Son’s touches come a little further up the pitch in an enterprising Spurs team.
The big difference between both players, however, is their effectiveness in front of goal. In each of the last four league seasons, Werner has underperformed in expected goals, having significantly outperformed his underlying data in the season prior to his signing for Chelsea.
His debut season at Stamford Bridge, which saw him lose the goodwill of many fans, was a particularly cold spell. Werner scored just six goals in the Premier League with 11.45xG, with a dismal shot conversion rate of 7.6 percent. He was on the end of 23 Opta-defined “big chances” and missed 18 of them. Werner hasn’t been as wasteful since then, but he’s still a below-average finisher.
By contrast, in all but one of his Premier League campaigns (last season), Son has outperformed xG, often significantly. In three of the last four seasons, Son’s shot conversion rate has been above 20 percent and his big-chance conversion rate has been above 40 percent in three of those four seasons. Werner can faithfully replicate Son in the position, but not in his almost incomparable finishing.
Werner’s fight to recover in the Bundesliga
Clubs are looking for January signings who can contribute immediately and Werner should have enough experience to avoid a long adaptation period.
However, Spurs are signing a player who has only started two Bundesliga games this season and in one of them they will have to regain his form.
Werner scored nine goals and three assists in 23 league games for RB Leipzig last season, but only has 204 league minutes to his name, as well as 50 minutes of substitute appearances in the Champions League. Werner’s lack of minutes makes evaluating his performance this season almost obsolete.
The return to Germany was a chance for Werner to rediscover the form that first attracted Chelsea, but his shot volume and xG per 90 minutes have not recovered to the levels seen before his move to England.
RB Leipzig are far from dominant in Germany, but they were roughly the third-strongest team in the Bundesliga last season and rank fourth in the league in both points and expected goal difference this season. Their position in Germany is not a mile away from that of Spurs in the Premier League.
One area where Werner continues to excel statistically is progressive passes received. According to the FBref website, Werner is among the top five percent of forwards in the five major European leagues in this area, suggesting that his movement is still capable of separating him from his markers.
Spurs’ chaotic games could please the German
In Werner’s two seasons under Frank Lampard and Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea averaged more than 60 percent possession in the Premier League. Only Manchester City and Liverpool had more possession of the ball. Teams tended to sit deep and absorb pressure against Chelsea, reducing the space behind where Werner loves to operate. Tuchel’s Chelsea were a very orderly and structured team whose games tended to have few goals, which limited their power over the course of a league season, but made them a successful cup team.
The Spurs also have a lot of ball, but their football with Postecoglou is more direct and their games are more back and forth. This should please Werner, who prefers an early serve rather than facing a fixed defense from the start.
Only Newcastle United games have produced more expected goals, at both ends combined, than Tottenham’s this season with 3.56xG per game. Spurs engage in hectic competitions and almost seem to encourage them, which should give Werner room to breathe after a claustrophobic tactical task at Chelsea.
Will it be able to stay in place?
You may remember that Werner’s habit of running offside became something of a joke at Chelsea, with numerous goals disallowed because he didn’t time his runs correctly. In his first season at Chelsea, he was called offside 42 times in all competitions, more than any Premier League player.
This has also been a source of frustration and self-deprecating humor among Spurs fans, who have seen Richarlison ‘score’ several goals that were subsequently disallowed for offside following a VAR review. In the Premier League this season, only Darwin Núñez has been caught offside more often than Son. Only Liverpool and Manchester United have been caught offside more times than Spurs as a team.
In Werner, Spurs have added another player who, as Sir Alex Ferguson once said about Filippo Inzaghi, was born offside. This is a function of Werner’s style and strengths, rather than a damning flaw, and he can reap huge rewards if he can stay on the right side of the line often enough. Spurs will certainly not be short of forwards looking to live off the shoulder of the last defender.
