by For the first time, food and agriculture took center stage at the annual United Nations climate conference in 2023.
More than 130 countries signed a declaration on December 1, committing to making their food systems (everything from production to consumption) a focal point in national strategies to address climate change.
The declaration is short on concrete actions to adapt to climate change and reduce emissions, but it draws attention to a crucial issue.
The global food supply is increasingly facing disruption due to extreme heat and storms. It is also a major contributor to climate change, responsible for a third of all greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. This tension is why agricultural innovation is increasingly at the forefront of international climate debates.
Today, agriculture provides enough food for the world’s 8 billion people, although many do not have adequate access. But to feed a global population of 10 billion in 2050, cropland would need to expand by 660,000 to 1.2 million square miles (171 to 301 million hectares) relative to 2010. That would lead to more deforestation. , which contributes to climate change. Additionally, some practices that are widely relied on to produce enough food, such as the use of synthetic fertilizers, also contribute to climate change.
Simply eliminating deforestation and these practices without alternative solutions would decrease the global food supply and farmers’ incomes. Fortunately, innovations are emerging that can help.
In a new report, the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture, founded by Nobel-winning economist Michael Kremer, identifies seven priority areas for innovation that can help ensure sufficient food production, minimize greenhouse gas emissions and scale them up to reach hundreds of millions of people.
I am an agricultural economist and executive director of the commission. Three innovations in particular stand out for their ability to grow quickly and deliver economic results.
Accurate and accessible weather forecasts
As extreme weather conditions leave crops increasingly vulnerable and farmers struggle to adapt, accurate weather forecasts are crucial. Farmers need to know what to expect, both in the days ahead and beyond, to make strategic decisions about planting, watering, fertilizing and harvesting.
However, access to accurate and detailed forecasts is rare for farmers in many low- and middle-income countries.
Our assessment shows that investing in technology to collect data and make forecasts widely available (e.g. via radio, text messages or WhatsApp) can pay huge dividends for economies.
For example, accurate state-level forecasts of seasonal monsoon rainfall totals would help Indian farmers optimize sowing and seeding times, providing benefits estimated at $3 billion over five years, at a cost of about $5 billion. millions of dollars.
If farmers in Benin received accurate forecasts via text message, we estimate they could save each farmer between $110 and $356 a year, a large amount in that country.
Greater information sharing between neighboring countries, using platforms such as the World Meteorological Organization’s Climate Services Information System, could also improve forecasts.
Microbial fertilizers
Another innovation priority involves expanding the use of microbial fertilizers.
Nitrogen fertilizers are widely used to increase crop yields, but they are typically made from natural gas and are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Microbial fertilizers use bacteria to help plants and soil absorb the nutrients they need, thus reducing the amount of nitrogen fertilizer needed.
Studies have found that microbial fertilizers could increase legume yields by 10% to 30% in healthy soils and generate billions of dollars in benefits. Other microbial fertilizers work on corn, and scientists are working on more advances.
Soybean farmers in Brazil have been using a rhizobia-based microbial fertilizer for decades to improve their yields and reduce the costs of synthetic fertilizers. But this technique is not so well known in other places. Scaling it up will require funding to expand testing to more countries, but it has huge potential for benefits for farmers, soil health and the climate.
Reduce livestock methane
A third innovation priority is livestock farming, the source of approximately two-thirds of agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions. With demand for beef expected to rise 80% by 2050 as low- and middle-income countries become wealthier, reducing those emissions is essential.
Several innovative methods to reduce methane emissions from livestock target enteric fermentation, which causes methane belches.
Adding seaweed, algae, lipids, tannins or certain synthetic compounds to livestock feed can change the chemical reactions that generate methane during digestion. Studies have found that some techniques have the potential to reduce methane emissions by between a quarter and almost 100 percent. When livestock produce less methane, they also waste less energy, which can be used for growth and milk production, which is a boost for farmers.
The method remains expensive, but further development and private investment could help scale it up and reduce the cost.
Gene editing, whether of cattle or the microorganisms in their stomachs, could also one day have potential.
Expand agricultural innovation
The Innovation Commission also identified four other priorities for innovation:
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Help farmers and communities implement better rainwater harvesting.
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Reduce the cost of digital agriculture that can help farmers use irrigation, fertilizers and pesticides more efficiently.
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Promote the production of alternative proteins to reduce the demand for livestock.
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Provide insurance and other social protections to help farmers recover from extreme weather events.
While there are promising agricultural innovations, commercial incentives to develop and scale them have been insufficient, leading to underinvestment, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
However, innovation financing has a history of generating very high rates of social return. This creates an opportunity for public and philanthropic investment in the development and implementation of innovations at a scale that reaches hundreds of millions of people. Of course, to be effective, any potential innovation must be consistent with (and driven by) national strategies and planned in conjunction with government, the private sector and civil society.
Two decades ago, world leaders, frustrated that life-saving vaccines were not reaching hundreds of millions of people who needed them, created Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. They invested billions of dollars to scale up these innovations, helped immunize more than a billion children, and halved child mortality in 78 low-income countries.
This year, COP28 officials are aiming for a similar global response to climate change, food security and agriculture.
This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent, nonprofit news organization bringing you data and analysis to help you understand our complex world.
It was written by: Paul Winters, University of Notre Dame.
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Paul Winters receives funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for the work of the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture. He is Executive Director of the Innovation Commission for Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture based at the Development Innovation Laboratory at the University of Chicago. He also provides unpaid technical support to the COP28 Presidency Food System Initiative around the Innovation Pillar.
