by We’re just a week into 2024, but it’s already proving to be a turbulent year for nervous travelers, with two high-profile incidents raising questions about the safety of flying.
On January 2, a Japan Airlines plane collided with a coast guard plane at Haneda Airport in Tokyo, causing a runway inferno that destroyed both planes. Five of the six crew members of the smaller plane were killed, but all 367 passengers and 12 crew members of the A350 survived after a successful evacuation effort.
Days later, on January 7, a hole the size of a refrigerator opened in an Alaska Airlines passenger plane mid-flight. Phones and magazines (and even a child’s T-shirt) were sucked into the depressurized plane, which made an emergency landing shortly after. Since then, more than 170 Boeing 737 Max 9 planes have been grounded while the manufacturer investigates the cause of the problem; The Civil Aviation Authority has required all aircraft to be inspected before being allowed to enter UK airspace.
These scenes are the stuff of nightmares for even the most confident pilots. But are the incidents of the last week cause for concern?
Flying is safer than ever
The short answer to the above question is: no. Despite the incidents of the last week, commercial aviation has never been safer. There were only two fatal crashes on commercial airliners in 2023, making it the safest year on record. Each of the accidents (which occurred in Nepal and Brazil) involved propeller-driven aircraft on domestic flights, with a total of 86 deaths.
However, last year not a single international airliner or passenger plane suffered a fatal accident. In comparison, according to UN figures, an average of 148 people die every hour in traffic accidents.
If we look at data from the last century, recorded by the Aircraft Accident Archives Office, the total number of air disasters per year (including non-commercial aircraft) has decreased significantly in recent years. Last year there were 82 accidents in total, including private and cargo flights, whereas 50 years ago, when there were far fewer flights, that annual figure was 372 accidents.
So what are the chances of being involved in an accident? UN data from the last decade shows that (from 2013 to 2022) there was an accident rate of 3.47 per million departures: in 2019 (the last completely normal year for aviation, before the pandemic) there were 46 .8 million scheduled commercial flights worldwide, with 114 accidents, six fatal accidents and 239 fatalities.
But the turbulence is getting worse
A safer sky does not necessarily guarantee a smoother trip. Severe turbulence has increased by 55 percent in the past 50 years, due to a more erratic jet stream that causes wind shocks moving at different speeds, a phenomenon caused by climate change.
Satellite data shows that severe turbulence has increased from a cumulative average of 17.7 hours per year, anywhere in the North Atlantic, to 27.4 hours, according to the University of Reading.
“It may not seem like much, but this is severe turbulence that will lift you out of your seat if you’re not wearing a seat belt,” said Dr. Paul Williams, professor of atmospheric sciences in Reading’s meteorology department.
“This is just the beginning. We expect the situation to get much worse and unless we reduce emissions, we will see double or triple the turbulence.”
Near misses are on the rise
There have been no major aviation disasters in the United States for more than 10 years, but a recent New York Times investigation found that potentially dangerous encounters are occurring with greater frequency.
The report came after a private plane came within 100 feet of crashing into a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 plane taxiing at the San Diego airport. Early last year, a Southwest Airlines pilot aborted a landing at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport because a Delta Air Lines plane was approaching takeoff on the same runway.
These are just two examples of incidents that the Federal Aviation Administration described as “skin on skin,” according to records obtained by The New York Times. In the 12-month period analyzed, there were around 300 cases of near misses involving commercial airlines.
The runway is more dangerous than the sky.
While mid-air aviation accidents are declining, a study by U.S. transportation authorities found that runway incursions have increased over time.
“We see a worrying number of runway incursions around the world, with aircraft entering the runway when it is occupied or when another aircraft is about to land on that landing,” Adrian Young, a senior aviation consultant, wrote in a blog recent on aviation. consulting to the 7th.
There are also runway excursions, such as when a Tui plane “went off the runway” at Leeds-Bradford Airport amid high winds and rain. All passengers disembarked unharmed, although other incidents have caused fatalities, such as a 2020 Pegasus Airlines flight that overran the runway at Istanbul-Sabiha Gökçen International Airport in poor weather conditions. Three passengers died. These runway excursions, according to the International Air Transport Association, are “the most common type of accident.”
The United Kingdom bans airlines from these 25 countries
Despite the increasing safety of air travel, the UK Government publishes a UK Air Safety List, highlighting countries and airlines that cannot operate in or out of UK airspace. This is separate from Foreign Office advice about which countries are safe to visit.
The list is largely made up of countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, including Pakistan, Iran, Armenia and the Russian Federation. The Secretary of State for Transport updates the list every three months, based on advice from the Civil Aviation Authority and the UK Aviation Safety Committee.
