by DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The Middle East will host its second consecutive U.N. climate conference in the next two weeks, and countries hope to agree on new ways to keep the planet from getting too hot by the end of the century. Distractions abound, especially the war between Israel and Hamas.
Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, will welcome thousands of attendees to the 28th “Conference of the Parties” to the UN climate conference from Thursday to December 12, amid lingering doubts about how far the oil-rich country to help end climate change. crisis driven largely by the use of fossil fuels.
Here is a look at the context, what is at stake and the challenges ahead at COP28.
WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST
The world has warmed since last year’s conference in Egypt. Some experts say 2023 is already the hottest year on record. The northern hemisphere saw record levels this summer, and Brazil, where it is not yet summer, recorded record levels of heat and humidity this month.
“Virtually the entire world is experiencing heat waves,” Petteri Taalas, head of the U.N. weather agency, said earlier this month.
There are growing signs that the world – especially developing countries – is becoming less prepared: this year’s monsoon season in India caused nearly $1.5 billion in property damage. Tropical Storm Daniel caused deadly flooding in Libya in September. Last month, Hurricane Otis hit Mexico, raising fears that the government would spend more money rebuilding than helping people cope.
Even if extreme cold spells return – like the one currently occurring in northern Europe – general trend lines point to an increase in average global temperatures.
WHAT ARE THE GAMES IN THIS COP?
Few experts and policymakers expect a breakthrough this year.
The burning of fossil fuels that send carbon into the atmosphere remains the main cause of global warming and production continues to grow. Climate activists say efforts to develop wind, solar and other alternative energies are not going fast enough.
The 2015 Paris climate agreement set a goal of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) from the start of the industrial era, and so far the world is falling far short.
Many experts say that to reach that goal, carbon production in the atmosphere must peak next year and fall by nearly half by 2030.
Western countries are among those promoting ambitions to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by that year. Advocacy groups say that’s cutting around the edges and avoiding the main issue: reducing the burning of coal, oil and gas.
One debate will be about “reduce” or “out”: whether countries agree to gradually reduce their use of fossil fuels, as some want, or eliminate them altogether, a lofty goal of climate activists that is unlikely to receive serious consideration at home. of the Gulf. .
Global warming has enormous implications: it can disrupt local economies, worsen weather patterns, drive people to migrate, and wreak havoc on indigenous peoples who want to preserve their traditional cultures, among many other impacts.
Another challenge in Dubai will be raising funds for poorer nations to prepare for, respond to and deal with climate-related catastrophes. Last year, creating a “loss and damage fund” was a big accomplishment, but figuring out how to fill it has been complicated.
WHO IS COMING
King Charles will join Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US climate tsar John Kerry and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in what organizers say is the largest COP in history. Pope Francis had planned to attend, but he canceled on doctor’s orders while he recovers from respiratory problems.
Sultan al-Jaber, the head of Abu Dhabi’s national oil company who chairs COP28, will be scrutinized for his country’s clear interest in oil and its calls for a transition to renewable energy. Many want to know whether oil-rich Gulf states will pony up more money to help developing countries adapt to climate change and switch to greener technologies.
The governments of developing countries want help to combat the consequences of the warming that hits them especially hard and that has arisen through no or little fault on their part.
Countries in the rich world will try to score political points in the global community in an increasingly polarized world, whether by providing donations or sharing knowledge of their economic engines with nations in need, without forgetting their constituents back home.
Climate activists want to hold decision-makers in rich nations accountable for any lofty but unfulfilled past promises they have made, and push for greater ambitions to change the way we live from Tokyo to Tegucigalpa to Timbuktu.
WHAT CHALLENGES Await
Hopes in each COP collide head-on with reality.
Just like last year, when Russia’s war in Ukraine weighed in the background of efforts to fight climate change, this year many eyes are on another part of the Middle East: on Israel’s military campaign in Gaza after of the devastating Hamas attack in Israel last month.
One challenge will be to revive attention on climate issues, which often fade after heat waves subside.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres traveled to Antarctica in recent days to highlight concerns about melting ice. Many companies are leaning toward COP28: US agricultural company Cargill, for example, announced this week an “accelerated commitment” to ending deforestation (critics said it had not done enough) in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay.
Developing countries want to benefit from the luxuries that the rich world has long enjoyed, often producing huge amounts of carbon. Purchases of SUVs and larger, gas-guzzling cars are growing around the world, even as electric vehicles increasingly advance.
Inflationary pressures that have raised the cost of living in recent months have made purchases of cleaner (often more expensive) technologies less attractive, and many consumers have demanded lower gasoline prices. Many countries continue to subsidize fuel costs to limit the pressure on their pockets.
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