Historic climate agreement does the ‘minimum’ as the world heats, burns and floods

If ever there was a year that demanded bold global action on climate change, it was 2023.

In what will likely go down as the hottest year on record – a year plagued by catastrophic floods, scorching heat waves, devastating wildfires and long-lasting droughts – leaders from nearly 200 countries gathered to chart a path forward in the fight against climate change.

After more than two weeks of tense negotiations at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP28, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, representatives from 198 countries agreed Wednesday to “transition away” from fossil fuels. .

It was a historic agreement, but it once again fell short for many climate activists, who saw it as further evidence that efforts to address climate change are moving too slowly and are compromised by fossil fuel interests.

Former Vice President Al Gore called the deal an “important milestone,” but added that acknowledging the role burning fossil fuels has played in the climate crisis is “the minimum we need and is long overdue.”

“Whether this is a tipping point that truly ushers in the end of the fossil fuel era depends on the actions that come next and the mobilization of financing needed to achieve them,” Gore wrote Wednesday on the networking platform. social

Skepticism about what comes next is understandable. The lack of a concrete plan in the COP agreement to phase out the use of fossil fuels adds to growing concerns that the overall measures needed to avoid drastic environmental consequences are falling short. Sure, the rise of clean energy technology and greater social awareness about global warming have spurred some optimism, but many environmentalists emphasize that these advances could mean little without a drastic reduction in the amount of carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere. atmosphere.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said Wednesday that the era of fossil fuels “must end,” adding that science indicates it will be impossible to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). ) without eliminating its use.

“Whether you like it or not, the phase-out of fossil fuels is inevitable,” he wrote in X. “Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.”

The COP28 climate summit was controversial from the start. The host country, the United Arab Emirates, is an oil-rich nation, and the meeting’s chairman, Sultan al-Jaber, is the chief executive of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company, ADNOC.

Early in the conference, Al-Jaber came under fire for claiming at an online event in late November that there was “no science” to support the need to phase out fossil fuels to limit global warming, as first reported by The Guardian.

The event came as confidence that oil companies are committed to reducing fossil fuel emissions has declined. While major oil and gas companies previously signaled they would transition to clean energy and do their part to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they have walked back many of those statements over the past year. Critics have accused the industry of “greenwashing,” as companies have increased exploration and hundreds of new oil and gas projects have been approved around the world.

Throughout the meeting, which continued into overtime, critics questioned how much could be achieved with fossil fuels when it was held in Dubai and led by Al-Jaber. Those fears came to the fore when it became clear that the final agreement would not commit to a phase-out of fossil fuels.

While the phrases “transition” and “phase out” sound similar, there are key distinctions between them. Phasing out means that its use in energy systems will eventually be eliminated, while “transition” represents a compromise, implying that its use will be reduced but still continue.

Nate Hultman, a former State Department official and founder and director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland, said that before the conference it was an open question whether world leaders would seriously debate the future of fossil fuels.

“There was a risk that this would have been an exercise in avoiding a problem,” he said.

But Hultman said the final agreement, which requires countries to equitably “transition away” from fossil fuels, triple the amount of renewable energy installed by 2030 and contain leaks of the potent greenhouse gas methane, makes clear That World leaders did count on a future without fossil fuels.

“The result indicates that this issue was not only substantially discussed, but also highlighted in the text. There are good and strong elements,” said Hultman, who attended his 21st COP this year. “It will be important to get this kind of signal about the transition away from fossil fuels.”

Still, the agreement is non-binding and its critics – particularly leaders of poor, developing countries and island nations that are disproportionately affected by climate change – said it does not go far enough to eliminate the fossil fuels and keep the world below 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature. heating.

Many scientists and climate activists have expressed frustration that calls to “phase out” fossil fuels have been significantly watered down.

“The agreement that emerged from COP28 rightly emphasizes nature as a solution, but not recognizing the need to phase out the use of fossil fuels is discouraging,” said Mustafa Santiago Ali, executive vice president of conservation and justice at the nonprofit National Wildlife Federation. he said in a statement Wednesday.

Earlier in the week, when drafts of the agreement emerged, emotions ran even higher. Gore wrote on Monday in X that “COP28 is now on the verge of complete failure.”

In the end, nations agreed for the first time in nearly 30 years of these UN summits that a shift away from fossil fuels was necessary to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by or around 2050 and avoid the worst consequences of the climate change.

Simply mentioning what has been the elephant in the room at previous COP meetings was hailed as an important milestone.

“The very fact that phasing out fossil fuels has become a central issue internationally would have been difficult to imagine five years ago and is a significant development,” said Michael Lazarus, senior scientist and director of the Environmental Institute. of Stockholm, United States. , which is based in Seattle. “It means there is now a useful life, a deadline for fossil fuels. “We are at a point where we can imagine a transition away from fossil fuels.”

Lazarus said the consensus nature of the international process (each country participating in the deliberations effectively has veto power) makes global progress arduous.

“People say it’s just words and not actions, but the discourse that comes out of these international meetings has a remarkable resonance and ability to change the conversation,” Lazarus said. “Unless we have a sense of global action to phase out fossil fuels and reduce emissions across the board, countries will not have the same incentives to act in the ways they need to.”

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com