by The new year is almost upon us, which means it’s the perfect time to look ahead to the tech trends that will shape 2024. Generative AI was the story of 2023, and the fact that the clock strikes midnight on 1 January does not mean it will be less important.
Look for generative AI, and AI in general, to continue driving a big part of the conversation in the coming year. However, it will not just be about new models and companies that join the AI arms race. Conversations will increasingly focus on how companies are generating revenue from their first investments in generative AI.
But AI won’t be the only story causing a stir. Augmented and virtual reality will also take center stage when Apple (AAPL) launches its Vision Pro headset in early 2024, setting up a showdown with rival Meta (META).
Self-driving vehicle technology will also receive a lot of attention in 2024, as companies like Tesla (TSLA) and GM (GM) face criticism related to their self-driving capabilities and more automakers implement advanced driver-assist features.
There will also surely be stories that burst onto the scene that we cannot even understand today. Who could have imagined in 2022 that generative AI would become the technology story of 2023? That being said, here are some of the biggest themes you can expect in 2024.
AI gets personal
Generative AI stole the spotlight in 2023, and that will continue through 2024 with an added twist: those powerful AI capabilities will increasingly be available on your PCs and smartphones.
Intel (INTC), AMD (AMD), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are already talking about so-called AI PCs, or PCs with the ability to run generative AI applications. And we’ll see even more in 2024. All three companies have already introduced chips capable of onboard AI processing, and Google’s (GOOG, GOOGL) Pixel 8 Pro is running that company’s next-generation Gemini Nano generative AI model. And the number of devices running generative AI on board will only expand from there.
Local generative AI applications will give consumers a greater sense of privacy and security, as platforms will not need to send user data to the cloud to do things like perform searches or organize information.
Apple could also jump on the generative AI bandwagon. During the company’s fourth-quarter earnings conference call, CEO Tim Cook explained how Apple already uses artificial intelligence technologies in several of its offerings, including live voicemail and fall detection. Cook also specifically mentioned that Apple is investing in its own generative AI capabilities, and that could mean a smarter Siri.
“We’ll see more AI and Apple talking about generative AI built into Siri,” explained Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. “That is, from a consumer and stock perspective, something that I think would be positive for Apple stock next year.”
Meanwhile, investors will look for returns on Big Tech’s AI investments from the previous year.
“They need to start generating incremental revenue,” explained Patrick Moorhead, CEO and chief analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy. “AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, Oracle Cloud, IBM Cloud… my expectation is that there will be people who actually buy and pay money for these incremental services.”
Mixed reality faces its biggest test
Yes, AI will still make headlines in 2024, but another story could rival the artificial intelligence bonanza: Apple’s Vision Pro headphones. The augmented/virtual reality “space computer,” as Apple calls it, will debut next year.
The $3,499 Vision Pro marks the first time Apple has entered a new product category since introducing the Apple Watch in 2015. I was impressed when I tested an early version of the Vision Pro in June during Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference. It seemed like the technology was miles ahead of what rivals like Meta had to offer at the time.
Meta is the market leader in AR/VR headsets thanks to its Quest headsets and limited competition, but its Reality Labs division, which produces Quest devices, loses billions of dollars each year.
If Apple wants to make the Vision Pro a success, it will have to convince consumers that they need the headphones, something Meta has struggled with.
“I think it will take five to eight years to gain ground, but I think [the Vision Pro] Ultimately, it will be an interesting part of consumer technology,” Munster said.
Self-driving cars continue to roll
Self-driving cars faced a series of setbacks in 2023, including GM suspending its Cruise self-driving taxi business after a person was dragged by a vehicle. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s Tesla was forced to issue an over-the-air update to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads to address concerns that the company’s cars failed to warn people about how to properly use their advanced driver assistance technology.
According to Moorhead, the automotive and technology industries underestimated how difficult it would be to get autonomous vehicles up and running at any scale.
But there is still a lot of interest in the technology and there will be no shortage of autonomous announcements throughout 2024 starting at the Consumer Electronic Show next month.
Nvidia, Qualcomm, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Honda, Toyota – they are all working on advanced driver assistance technologies, which are an introduction to autonomous vehicles.
However, companies can begin to temper expectations about when fully autonomous vehicles will eventually hit the road. Predictions that the technology is just a few years away are likely to be few and far between.
All that said, if 2024 is anything like 2023, we’re in for another wild ride.
Daniel Howley is Yahoo Finance’s technology editor. He has been covering the tech industry since 2011. You can follow him on Twitter. @DanielHowley.
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