by Reading the lengthy final agreement from the COP28 United Nations climate conference in December 2023, you will have to go a long way before finding a strong, active verb. The extensive recitation of climate impacts “notes with concern” and sometimes with “significant concern” glaring gaps in countries’ current policies. But while countries voluntarily committed to action, they were less interested in having those promises framed as binding agreements in the final text.
Reactions to the conclusion of COP28 have understandably been mixed. Going into the talks, the world was further on track to avoid catastrophic warming than it would have been without the 2015 Paris Agreement, but far from where it needs to be.
Even if all the promises made at COP28 are implemented, the world will still exceed the Paris goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
Politically, the agreement may have been the best the nations could achieve at this time of rising geopolitical tensions and under the leadership of the United Arab Emirates. The United Arab Emirates is a country of contradictions: a petrostate with renewable energy ambitions, eager to emerge on the global stage as a green champion, but also accused of colonization tactics in Africa.
Most headlines have focused on the mention of fossil fuels in the COP28 agreement for the first time. The complicated language called on countries to “contribute” to the “fossil fuel transition,” not the phase-out supported by most countries. With an unprecedented number of energy industry lobbyists on hand, the most vulnerable countries described the consensus as a litany of loopholes.
The final agreement was, in large part, written in a way to ensure the future of the natural gas industry. He presented natural gas as a necessary bridging fuel as renewable energy expands, an argument that was refuted by the International Energy Agency ahead of COP28. The deal also fueled expectations of continued heavy subsidies for carbon capture and storage, which many energy analysts and economists have dismissed as impossible to scale at a reasonable cost.
However, the UAE destroyed some of the old dogmas of the climate negotiation. It broke the polarity of climate finance (the Global South waiting for the Global North to deliver on its public financing promises) by focusing on private investment and putting tens of billions of dollars of its sovereign wealth at stake. He was unable to persuade others to match his generosity, but there will be more pressure in 2024.
So what should we look for in the coming months?
1. Turn new energy commitments into action
COP28 included important commitments towards an energy transition away from fossil fuels, including promises to triple renewable energy capacity, increase energy efficiency and reduce methane emissions.
Now it is up to countries and companies to show progress. That will depend on investments and overcoming supply bottlenecks, as well as new policies and, in the case of methane, standards for imports and exports.
The new Global Refrigeration Commitment to reduce emissions from refrigeration by 68% while increasing access to refrigeration technology is increasingly critical. Cooling demand is driving up energy demand around the world, particularly in populous countries hit hard by extreme heat, such as India. Developing technologies that help the billions of people most at risk and improving cold supply chains for food and medicine will require more investment and higher priority from governments.
Watch for more cities to appoint heat czars to lead efforts to protect populations from extreme heat, the adoption of tree equity plans to increase shade and cooling, and more investment in cooling technologies.
2. Implement innovations in finance
COP28 saw significant innovation in finance, including the UAE’s announcement of the Alterra Fund – a billion-dollar commitment to mobilize private investment in developing countries.
The International Organization of Securities Commissions sent a strong statement in support of corporate sustainability disclosure standards and welcomed corporate integrity standards in voluntary carbon markets. Look for more countries to add rules around “net zero emissions” pledges.
3. Putting commerce at the service of the climate
Linked to finance and investment is trade, which COP28 welcomed to the main stage for the first time.
There are two things to expect in 2024. First, expect the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to align their advice to governments on effective carbon pricing.
Second, while trade and climate negotiators traditionally move in different circles, they will need to work together to ensure that the trading system supports climate action. For example, ensuring that green products and services are not more expensive than their polluting alternatives.
4. Fix carbon markets
2023 was a year of setback for voluntary carbon markets as research questioned their effectiveness. The failure of COP28 to advance agreements on carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement means they will be a focus of attention in 2024.
In this case, no deal was better than a bad deal, but the delay means countries planning to use carbon markets to meet their net-zero emissions targets are left in uncertainty.
5. Get more funding for adaptation where needed
Agreement was finally reached on a global adaptation goal, a collective commitment to build resilience and adaptive capacity around the world, but negotiators left the details to be worked out over the next two years.
For adaptation funds to flow to where they are needed most, discussions will need to be initiated from the top, including locally led efforts. Look for adaptation to become a much larger part of countries’ second-generation climate plans to be presented to the UN ahead of COP30.
6. Turn new food and agricultural commitments into action
The majority of the world’s countries, 159, signed the UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action. They agreed to include food systems, which contribute a significant percentage of global emissions and are critical for adaptation and resilience, in the next generation of climate plans to be presented to the UN.
However, the commitment was limited in details, so how each country turns words into actions will be crucial in 2024.
The next big climate milestones
In late 2024, COP29 will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, another oil-producing nation. The focus will be on finances. But the next big milestone will be 2025, when governments will have to present their commitments and future plans to reduce emissions.
COP30 will be held in Belén, in the Brazilian state of Pará, the first line of protection of the Amazon. This will bring a focus on nature-based solutions, but from the perspective of the Global South. President Lula da Silva, who is also the host of the G20 in 2024, wants to see changes in the international trade and financial system to reflect changes in the global economy.
COP28 set out important initiatives but resisted binding commitments. As countries work on their next generation of plans to try to put the world on track to limit global warming, they will need to consider their entire economies and cover all greenhouse gases. The world cannot afford to refuse twice.
This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent, nonprofit news organization bringing you trusted data and analysis to help you understand our complex world. If you found it interesting, you can subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
It was written by: Rachel Kyte, Oxford University.
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Rachel Kyte is affiliated with VCMI – Voluntary Carbon Market Integrity and Climate Resilience for All Initiative CRA
