by The first days of the new year brought confirmation of some disturbing news: 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded. Researchers believed that would be the case amid relentless record-breaking daily and monthly temperatures, but how significant were the numbers and what do they mean for the future of our planet? global warming?
These graphs show a clear picture of how it happened, as well as what is likely to come In the not too distant future.
How hot was 2023?
Copernicus, the European Union’s climate agency, confirmed this week that 2023 saw a global average temperature of 14.98 degrees Celsius, almost 59 degrees Fahrenheit. That temperature was 0.17 degrees Celsius higher than the previous record year in 2016. Climate records are “falling like dominoes,” said Copernicus deputy director Samantha Burgess.
Compared to the pre-industrial average from 1850 to 1900, last year was 1.48 degrees Celsius warmer, Copernicus found.
“Not only is 2023 the warmest year on record, it is also the first year in which every day is 1°C warmer than in the pre-industrial period,” he said. “Temperatures during 2023 will likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years.”
What is the reason for the increase? According to data analyzed by scientists at the nonprofit organization Climate Central, it is a combination of factors. Natural causes provide some variation in temperature, but humans have had a much more significant impact on observed temperatures during this period.
Over the past 100 years, humans burning fossil fuels have released carbon dioxide (one of the most potent greenhouse gases warming the planet) “at a much faster rate than at any time in the previous 800,000 years of Earth’s history,” Climate Central says.
“The main cause of today’s rapid global warming is heat-trapping pollution caused by human activities,” the group explains. “…This year’s record global average temperatures reflect extreme and often dangerous heat events driven by human-caused climate change.”
1 degree Celsius: a small number with a big impact
Copernicus found that 2023 was the first year in recorded history in which each day exceeded 1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level. Nearly half of those days were more than 1.5 degrees warmer, and two days, both in November, were more than 2 degrees warmer.
The data shows that in the second half of 2023, each month was warmer than the same month in any previous year, with July and AugustBeing the two warmest months on record. Climate Central found that every day in July, a quarter of the entire world’s population “felt a very strong influence from climate change,” including 31 consecutive days of 110-degree Fahrenheit temperatures in Arizona, record-breaking ocean temperatures in southern Florida and large-scale agricultural losses.
Record warm sea surface temperatures
Last year it was not only hot in the air, but also in the sea. Copernicus found that 2023 saw the highest daily global sea surface temperature ever recorded by ERA5, its climate reanalysis system. According to the group, sea surface temperatures typically peak in March and then experience another rise in July and August. But last year, every month from April through December saw its highest levels, with the year’s peak of 21.02 degrees Celsius, or just under 70 degrees Fahrenheit, on Aug. 23 and 24.
The weather pattern known as El Niño formed last year, contributing to global heat, but the natural event so far has not been as strong as those experienced in 2015 and 1997, Copernicus said.
Record number of multi-million dollar storms in 2023
Rising temperatures in the world’s air and oceans act as fuel for extreme weather, making hurricanes, storms, droughts and other weather events stronger and more frequent. NOAA found that in 2023, the United States had 28 weather or climate disasters that each caused $1 billion or more in damage, far surpassing the previous record of 22 set in 2020.
Until around 2008, the number of annual billion-dollar storms did not exceed five and has since increased considerably.
At the same time, the number of days between these major disasters has decreased, Climate Central found. In the 1980s, there used to be approximately 60 to more than 100 days between major events. In 2023, they occurred every two weeks.
2024: another year of expected climate impacts
Last year was hot, but experts agree that 2024 could be even hotter. The UK Met Office published an outlook in December suggesting this year will be another record-breaking year, especially with an El Niño-driven temperature rise. According to Met Office scientists, the year 2024 will likely be between 1.34 degrees Celsius and 1.58 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. If that happens, it would be the 11th consecutive year that global average temperatures were at least 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The Met Office’s Nick Dunstone said there is a “reasonable” chance that 2024 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that climate scientists have long warned would bring an era of even more disastrous weather events around the world.
“It is important to recognize that a temporary exceedance of 1.5 ° C will not mean a violation of the Paris Agreement,” he said in a statement from the Meteorological Office, referring to the agreement of world leaders to commit to taking actions to prevent exceeding this threshold. . “But the first year above 1.5°C would certainly be a milestone in climate history.”
Officially surpassing the threshold would require a long-term average, not just a single year’s average. However, as temperatures continue to rise, the impacts would also continue to worsen.
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